The Hypertext Home Of Bill Batterman

By now, everyone should know the story. In early June, the Diamondbacks completed a rain-delayed four-game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta to improve to 34-22. One of the most compelling stories in baseball, Arizona was in first place in the competitive National League West and looked like a legitimate playoff contender.

When they returned home to Phoenix, however, the news broke that veteran reliever Jason Grimsley was embroiled in a federal steroid investigation and had admitted to using Human Growth Hormone, an undetectable but illegal performance enhancing drug that has become a household name thanks to allegations surrounding Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and a host of other big leaguers. Grimsley was released on June seventh but the media firestorm that ensued took on a life of its own, engulfing the Diamondbacks’ clubhouse. From June fifth through the end of the month, Arizona went 4-20 to fall four games below five hundred and out of the division lead.

Since the calendar turned to July, however, the Diamondbacks seem to be back on track. Winners of five of their last eight games before the All-Star Break, the Snakes remain in last place in the NL West but are just five games behind the front-running Padres and two-and-a-half back in the hyper-competitive Wild Card race.

On the mound, the Snakes have received an incredible three months from Brandon Webb and a mostly forgettable three months from everyone else. While ne’er-do-wells like Russ Ortiz and Kevin Jarvis forced the team to endure a parade of baserunners, Arizona has been quick to pull the plug on malfunctioning hurlers. Of the 20 pitchers that have climbed the hill in purple and teal, all but Webb have posted Value Over Replacement Pitcher (VORP)s of between +11 and -7. By fielding a stable of reliably replacement-level arms behind Webb, the Diamondbacks have quietly accumulated the eighth-highest VORP among pitching staffs in the National League despite pitching in baseball’s most extreme hitter’s park.

Even the bullpen has been surprisingly effective with Mets-import Jorge Julio filling in nicely for demoted-to-mop-up duties Jose Valverde, who has posted an incredible 45-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 and two-thirds innings but sports an ERA over eight thanks to a .296 opposing batting average. Former-Brewer Luis Vizcaino has also been solid, fanning 43 while walking just 15 in 37 and two-thirds innings while Randy Choate, Casey Daigle, Brandon Medders, and Brandon Lyon have all been at least occasionally reliable options for manager Bob Melvin, who recently had his contract extended.

While the casual observer would see the Diamondbacks’ offense as a strength—they rank sixth in the NL in runs—a closer evaluation reveals that much of their perceived clout is a product of Chase Field. At home, the Arizona offense has combined for a 790 OPS; away from Phoenix, that number declines to just 721, 13th-best among senior circuit clubs. Among the most extreme splits is that belonging to Chad Tracy, whose solid overall line (.277/.332/.454) masks his All-Star-caliber performance at home (.302/.350/.537) and his replacement-level performance on the road (.255/.317/.380).

Even when accounting for the Chase Field effect, however, the Diamondbacks have received strong offensive performances from outfielders Eric Byrnes and Shawn Green and catcher Johnny Estrada. Byrnes is hitting .292 with twelve homers and a team-best 874 OPS, more than 100 points better than his career mark of 761. Green, meanwhile, leads the team’s hitters in Win Probability Added and Estrada ranks sixth in the league in VORP among backstops.

The Brewers will have their work cut out for them against Webb, almost certainly the best pitcher in baseball during the first half. With their top three of Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush toeing the rubber, however, Milwaukee can legitimately claim the favorable pitching matchup in the other two contests. And with Capuano on the mound opposite Webb, himself eighth in baseball in VORP, even the third pairing isn’t a lopsided one on paper.

Coming off a disappointing series loss against the Cubs to close out the first half, the Brewers will have to ignore the heat and play at the top of their games to get back on track and climb back into the NL Central race.

[Continue Reading at Brewerfan.net]

I never saw Fox’s The Inside when it aired for a few weeks during the summer of 2005 but I discovered it not so long ago thanks to the thaumaturgical interwebs. One of the few crime dramas that can appropriately be described as “gritty,” The Inside featured a talented cast headed by Rachel Nichols and Peter Coyote, whose performance as Virgil Webster set the short-lived series apart from its many peers. Poor ratings prompted Fox to drop the series almost immediately and it hasn’t yet been released on DVD, but most of the 13 episodes filmed are available via bit torrent. If you’re into crime dramas and psychological thrillers, The Inside is most definitely worth the bandwidth.

Schadenfreude can be a dangerous thing.

The Cubs are suffering through a horrible 31-53 season in which they have scored the fewest runs and posted the lowest on-base average and OPS in baseball. Fans have been forced to watch as superstars Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Derrek Lee spend significant chunks of the campaign on the disabled list while legendarily useless never-was Neifi Perez racks up out-after-out at the top of the Cubs lineup. Top off-season acquisition Juan Pierre, brought in to provide the team with a “true leadoff man,” has on-based just .314 with a 666 OPS while the man he replaced, Corey Patterson, has stolen 31 bases and posted a .282/.321/.439 line in Baltimore after being run out of Chicago on a rail. Multi-million-dollar bullpen imports Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry have been solid in relief but closer Ryan Dempster has blown five of his meager 18 save opportunities, racking up a 4.91 ERA in the process. Newcomer Jacque Jones has hit well after a slow start but rookies Ronny Cedeno (.265 average / 645 OPS) and Matt Murton (.268 / 703) have been useless at the dish, the latter losing his job to DH-turned-outfielder Phil Nevin. Hitting rock bottom, the Baby Bears went just 9-19 during the month of June and have lost four consecutive series.

All the while, love-to-hate-able manager Dusty Baker has taken up residency on the hot seat, drawing harsh criticism from the most serious sabermetricians and the most intoxicated Wrigley faithful alike. General Manager Jim Hendry has vowed to evaluate his on-field coaching staff during the All-Star break and speculation is high that Baker and his wrist-bands and toothpicks are not long for the North Side.

For those that love to hate the Cubs, the situation couldn’t be better—at least not unless Sammy Sosa comes out of retirement to don the blue pinstripes and sprint out to right field.

Still, Lee is back in the lineup and with Todd Walker, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Barrett surrounding him the Cubs are certain to score more runs. Prior is back in the rotation and Carlos Zambrano has put together an outstanding first-half, anchoring a pitching staff that can shut down the opposition when the starters do their jobs.

While the Brewers have an excellent opportunity to reward their hometown fans as they attempt to “Take Back Miller Park” this weekend, they would do well not to take the Cubs too lightly. The North Siders deserve all the vitriol and ridicule that their fans have heaped upon them, but with their backs against the wall they are sure to play hard in a last-ditch attempt to save their beloved Dusty’s job. A series win by the Brewers might force Hendry’s hand and hammer the final nail in the 2006 Cubs’ coffin, but the team will have to avoid looking forward to the All-Star break and concentrate on getting the job done.

Finish the first-half above .500? Climb even closer to the division and Wild Card leads? Rub salt on the wounds of the rival Cubs? Get Dusty Baker fired?

Yeah, I’d say the Brewers have a lot to play for.

Schadenfreude can be dangerous, but it can also be a lot of fun.

[Continue Reading at Brewerfan.net]